So given the political climate in the Eurozone and the Arabic nations I am actually starting to get a little bit fearful of a potential World War 3, or as I have been calling it, The Oil War. This fear has been sparked by a happy little news report I saw on BBC news. Makes for an interesting read I’ll say that much.
For those than want the TL;DR version, it basically boils down into the following. Iran is waving around its nuclear e-peen again and the rest of the world doesn’t like it. After having been told on multiple occasions to put it away and not listening, the rest of the world is now shutting Iran out of the world of trade.
So no Trade Embargo against Iran. Fun times all round. It basically means that no new trade agreements may be made with Iran or Iranian based business and all existing contracts will be honoured until July 1st at which point they become null and void.
Now on a political level, Trade sanctions can have a profound effect on a country as it reduces their GDP and can cause havoc with their manufacturing industry as they can no longer get the materials, or getting the materials suddenly costs a hell of a lot more.
But I am not convinced that it will work in Iran’s case. They are new on the nuclear scene and are a little kid that is trying to play in a big kid’s game. After all, in the modern theatre of world politics, unless you are a long standing nuclear power or are willing to seriously make some noise almost no-one takes you seriously.
And that presents a real problem because Iran wants to be noticed. They want to play in the grown up’s game they will ride their nuclear e-peen as far as they can to get in here. But being so small and insignificant basically sets their options down to “Start really waving nukes” or go to war. I reckon they’ll go for the Start really waving nukes option. Especially since it wasn’t too long ago when they played the world’s most dangerous game of think fast, by giving the nations of the world, LITERALLY a 1 hour warning of a nuclear test.
What does it mean for the rest of us?
I in no way think that the Middle Eastern conflict is over. In any way, shape or form. I simply think it will change the combatants and the location slightly. Politics of this scale has a tendency to start forcing extremes. In this case either cave to our demands, or fight. And I don’t see Iran being the kind of country to back down, (especially given their history of Draconian military dictatorship).
So I think that this will escalate into armed conflict, but how far it actually goes, I don’t yet know. All I see though is that infamous doomsday clock being pushed another minute towards midnight. And that on its own is a damn scary prospect in its own right.
I think it’s just a massive shame that the UN is kept so powerless and can’t really enforce the things that it needs to. It was a beautiful idea when it was built after World War 2, but these days it has no weight. If it had, I think the Iranian nuclear threat would’ve been absolved a long time ago.
Maybe it’s time for a new UN, and the starts of a real world government, who knows. Comments and thoughts below!
Dave the glorious Emperor of the New Earth